The Virality Game

Which post
went viral?

For the last decade plus, Duncan Watts and his collaborators have published a number of research papers showing that virality in online platforms is largely unpredictable. Of course, the quality of the content and the popularity of the poster matters, but they show that there is still a lot of luck.

In this game, you will see if they are right. Each round you will be shown four real Bluesky posts, including when they were posted and the follower count of the poster. Guess which one got the most likes.

Fetching real posts from Bluesky...
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Final Score
0 / 5
Duncan Watts (2007) found that viral hits are nearly impossible to predict in advance — even controlling for content quality and author influence. Small random early advantages cascade into huge gaps. Follower count helps, but it's a weak signal. Much of virality is just luck — which post happened to get an early boost from the right person at the right time. That's why this game is so hard!
BASED ON WATTS ET AL. 2007