How do groups make good decisions?
- As we know, groups are not just a collection of individuals
- Different network structures and group processes can lead to very different outcomes
- Key concepts:
- Collective intelligence
- Shared understanding
- Decision-making processes
Collective intelligence
- Wisdom of crowds
- Collecting diverse, independent opinions can lead to better decisions
- Example: Estimating the weight of an ox
- Aggregation can happen through markets, averaging, etc.
- Even taking a simple average can outperform individual experts
Collective intelligence and communication networks
- Network structure can influence collective intelligence
- Decentralized networks can improve estimates
- Centralized networks can lead to conformity
Shared understanding
- Groups need shared understanding
- Shared mental models
- Common knowledge about the task, goals, and group roles
- Facilitates coordination and cooperation
- Can be developed through communication and shared experiences
- Homophily can lead to shared understanding but also to groupthink
Group processes
- Woolley et al.’s “c factor” of collective intelligence
- Social sensitivity
- Equal participation
- Number of women in group
- Also specific decision-making processes:
- Voting
- Consensus
- Single leader decision
Threats to good group decisions
- Groupthink
- Desire for harmony leads to poor decision-making
- Suppression of dissenting opinions
- Social loafing
- Individuals exert less effort in a group
- Polarization
- Group discussions can lead to more extreme positions
- Conformity
- Pressure to conform can suppress unique insights